WP5 “Building scenarios of future changes and challenges”
This work-package is all about developing locally-meaningful scenarios of change to help communities consider and plan for the future. The work is led by the James Hutton Institute but involves substantial input from all project partners, as well as the communities themselves.
The general objective of the WP is to use scenarios to explore how local community based management systems might respond to future shocks. This involves:
- Building scenarios for plausible futures for the three COMET-LA case study systems, including potential shocks to these systems and their impacts.
- Identifying potential adaptive management strategies, and any institutional changes required at local, regional, national and international scales.
- Synthesis and identification of any issues and insights that are relevant across sites.
The work is based on the collaboration between communities and partners across the project and local stakeholders, so all ideas and strategies will be locally-owned.
WP5 will build on the frameworks in WP1 and the analyses of the current socio-ecological systems in WP2-4 to consider how local adaptive management strategies might cope with future change. The scenarios will be used as ‘boundary objects’ in a participatory process to stimulate discussions about how the CSO-local community –research partnerships will respond to future challenges. The scenarios will not consist of full scale simulation processes. Instead they will be focused on providing the mechanism for the partnerships to consider how existing good practice resource governance models will function under possible future conditions. Scenarios also focus attention on the interaction of multi-level drivers (some endogenous, some exogenous) and therefore encourage the partnerships to think about how their own good practices can be (i) utilized by other local communities and (ii) applied at higher scale.
In addition to helping communities to plan for the future, this work will produce two official deliverables towards the end of 2015. A “Participatory Report on Synthesized Scenarios” (Deliverable 5.1) and a related policy brief “Implications for multi-level resource management in the future: Policy brief” (Deliverable 5.2).
As well as building on theory about scenario-building, our report will include results from the 3 scenario building workshops in Colombia, Mexico and Argentina. It will include a summary of pictures, diagrams and media produced during the workshops and the main messages agreed with participants with a commentary on the main similarities and differences in how the different stakeholders in different case studies felt they would respond to future challenges. We will focus on how stakeholders anticipate the future and where responses can have the most positive impact in amplifying positive change and mitigating negative changes. The policy brief will focus on the main messages for local, regional, national and supra-national policy-makers.